Elon Musk’s vision of humanoid robots in homes, factories and city streets is rapidly shifting from sci-fi to serious business, but China’s fast‑moving robotics ecosystem may be closer to making it real at scale. Musk has repeatedly argued that Tesla’s long‑term value will be driven less by electric cars and more by its Optimus humanoid robot platform, projecting that robots could eventually generate over 10 trillion dollars in revenue for the company. On recent earnings calls, he has said he expects Optimus to move from a few thousand units in 2025 toward mass production later in the decade, and has even floated a future where humanoid robots outnumber humans worldwide.
While Tesla is still piloting Optimus inside its own plants, Chinese players such as Unitree, UBTech, Fourier Intelligence and Agibot are already shipping humanoid robots in meaningful volumes, helped by Beijing’s policy push for a “world‑class humanoid robot industry” by 2027. TrendForce and other industry trackers say China, backed by its dominance in components like motors, sensors and harmonic drives, is positioning humanoids as the next strategic battleground after electric vehicles, with domestic firms focusing on lower cost and aggressive scaling.
At China’s inaugural “World Humanoid Robot Games” in Beijing, robots built by Unitree and other local manufacturers competed in dance, martial arts and soccer, underscoring how quickly hardware is maturing and how much ecosystem support exists on the ground. Chinese automakers and industrial groups are quietly becoming anchor customers: UBTech says it has hundreds of orders from carmakers and aims for up to several thousand humanoid units by the end of 2025, while Unitree reports more than 1,000 overseas humanoid sales already.
This momentum is feeding into a broader race to move humanoids out of controlled industrial pilots and into logistics hubs, retail spaces and, eventually, homes. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets and other firms now talk about a potential multi‑trillion‑dollar addressable market for humanoid robots by the 2040s, with China expected to account for more than 60% of demand in the early years as costs fall and use cases expand. New designs from companies like XPeng — whose “Iron” humanoid blends solid‑state batteries with multiple onboard AI models — highlight China’s strategy: build robots that are not just strong and capable, but approachable and “huggable” for everyday environments.
Still, experts caution that glossy demo videos often exaggerate real‑world capabilities. Truly general‑purpose humanoids able to work safely and autonomously alongside people remain years away, with widespread household adoption more likely after 2040, if at all. For now, the emerging reality is a split: Musk has made humanoid robots central to Tesla’s future narrative, but China’s dense manufacturing base, subsidies and component ecosystem mean its companies may be the first to put large numbers of working humanoids on factory floors and into everyday public spaces.
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